Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo
Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo
SA agriculture records a decent trade surplus in Q1,2023
South Africa's agricultural sector had a rough start to the year regarding production and exports. The excessive rains brought production challenges that delayed the summer crop planting activity by roughly a month but later improved. Regarding exports, the slowing agricultural commodity prices reduced profitability from the levels farmers enjoyed a…
SA has the second-largest maize harvest on record
With summer crop harvest underway across South Africa, the recent production estimates are more reliable and reflect the large yields farmers continue to reap. Hence, we were not surprised when South Africa's Crop Estimates Committee lifted the country's 2022/23 commercial maize production estimate by 1% from last month to 16,35…
Zimbabwe may face a significant maize shortfall
From a maize supply perspective, South Africa is in a relatively strong position. According to recent estimates by the Crop Estimates Committee, the country's 2022/23 commercial maize production could reach 16,1 million tonnes, up 5% year-on-year and the third largest on record. Given South Africa's annual maize needs are roughly…
Expected El Niño in 2023/24 summer does not necessarily foretell a bad harvest
Forecasts of an El Niño occurrence in the 2023/24 summer season do not necessarily equate to a bad agricultural season. The upcoming season of possible below-normal rainfall, i.e., El Niño, follows a rare consecutive four years of heavy rains that have improved soil moisture and natural grazing veld. This means…
Why did SA agriculture GDP contract by 12,3% in the first quarter of 2023
The numbers released by Statistics South Africa today show that in the first quarter of 2023, agriculture gross value added sharply contracted by -12,3% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted). There are a few elements that explain this sharp contraction. First, the field crops had a tough start to the season because of…
Agriculture Master Plan is ripe for implementation
May 2023 marked a year since South Africa's Agriculture and Agro-processing Masterplan was completed and launched. This plan offers the government and the private sector framework to grow the sector, build competitiveness, attract more investment, improve inclusion, and create jobs. This year should mark the start of the implementation phase…
Ample maize supplies in South Africa
South Africa's Crop Estimates Committee lifted the country's 2022/23 maize production estimate by 2% from last month to 16,1 million tonnes. This crop is 5% more than the 2021/22 season and the third-largest harvest on record. As we stated in the previous notes, the expected large harvest is primarily on…
Farm jobs in SA, Black Sea Grain Deal
There was so much happening in agriculture this past week. I want to spotlight one positive domestic matter and a global one. The data released by Statistics South Africa paints an encouraging picture of agricultural employment on the domestic front. In the first quarter of 2023, about 888 000 people…
Can SA expand its maize export footprint in China?
China cancelled US maize orders and purchased of the South African maize. This was a volume of 108 104 tonnes of maize from South Africa in the last week of March and the first few weeks of April 2023. This activity formed part of South Africa’s maize exports in the…
SA is on track for a good winter crop season
The global wheat market has been in focus since Russia invaded Ukraine in February last year. Many countries feared that they would not meet domestic needs because of supply constraints brought by the war in one of the major producing regions. The price surge after the invasion was also a…
SA expects ample summer grains and oilseeds harvest
The Crop Estimates Committee's data reaffirmed our optimism about South Africa's 2022/23 summer grains and oilseeds production season. Maize production is estimated at 15,9 million tonnes, up mildly from last month's estimate and 3% higher than the 2021/22 season's harvest. The current harvest is the third-largest harvest on record. The…
Challenges facing the SA livestock industry
South Africa's livestock industry has faced numerous challenges over the past few years. One of these was the rise in feed prices since 2020, especially for maize and soybeans. The rise in animal feed prices coincided with a worsening in consumers financial strain due to the damaging effects of the…
Why April is a critical month for SA agriculture
April is an important month in South Africa's agricultural sector, especially for field crops. Later this month, farmers in the Western and Northern Cape, Free State, Limpopo and other winter crop growing regions will start preparing the land for 2023/24 winter wheat, canola, barley and oats production. For now, it…
Africa is an important market for SA agriculture
Although I continue to argue that South Africa should expand its agricultural export markets to new frontiers such as India, China, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia, and South Korea, amongst others, the export drive should not be at the expense of the existing markets. We should actively engage with existing markets to…
One of SA's great agricultural seasons
Ample grains and oilseeds harvest in SA We have now received additional comforting information that the erratic weather conditions at the start of the 2022/23 summer production season had minimal impact on South Africa’s summer grains and oilseeds. The data released by the Crop Estimates Committee las week places South…
Sentiments in SA agriculture
This week we discuss sentiments in SA agriculture and agribusiness. This is an important matter because it influences the long-term investment path and growth of the sector. The sentiments in agriculture are measured through the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI). In its recent reading, after a 4-point decline in Q4…
How South Africa may leverage the BRICS chair for agribusiness
Despite BRICS not being a trade bloc, its economic cooperation arrangement offers South Africa a strategic platform to advance its trade interests. The agricultural sector is interested in this grouping, mainly in advancing exports into China and India. These countries already import a sizable volume and value of agricultural products…
A conversation with Eugene Willemsen of PepsiCo
This past week I sat down with Eugene Willemsen. Eugen is the Chief Executive Officer for Africa, Middle East and South Asia (AMESA) at PepsiCo. With a rich career spanning over 27 years in PepsiCo, Eugene has risen through the ranks to steer the AMESA region valued at $6.1B in…
Positive outlook for SA summer crops
The start of South Africa's 2022/23 summer crop production season was challenging for farmers and agricultural role players because of excessive rains. Crop planting in various regions of the country was delayed by roughly a month, threatening yield prospects. But the warm weather at the end of January and much…
Policies ripe for implementation in SA agriculture
There is so much in the implementation pipeline of South Africa’s agriculture policy this year. The past four years have largely seen various initiatives that sought to inject confidence in the sector. These are now ripe for implementation, especially ahead of the 2024 general elections. A major development in recent…