Taking the temperature of the SA economy

The IMF has upped its GDP growth forecast for SA in 2021 from 2.8% to 3.1%. The SARB recently raised their 2021 growth forecast from 3.6% to 3.8%, while some private sector economists like Old Mutual think growth this year may be as high as 5%. Yet load shedding bites again as a stark reminder of the fundamental weakness the economy displayed going into Covid still that lurks as a threat to riding any global rebound waves. It’s unclear, at this stage, whether the Government’s decision to paus the J&J vaccine rollout will have a material impact given that it hasn’t even started yet. An analysis published in a new World Bank report shows that vaccinating 60% of South Africa’s population to induce so-called “herd immunity” against Covid-19 would have a benefit-cost ratio of more than 29, and that the economic benefits would be amplified by an accelerated vaccination roll-out. Michael Avery spoke to Kevin Lings, Chief Economist at Stanlib; Mamello Matikinca, Chief Economist at FNB; and Investec Chief Economist, Annabel Bishop; about the prospects for economic growth for the remainder of the year.