Geopolitical and fiscal risks will continue to feature in global markets in 2024

--:--
The resilience of the US equity market, and especially the tech sector, continued to surprise investors in Q2 2024, says Marius Oberholzer, STANLIB’s Head of Multi-Asset. For the rest of 2024, he anticipates risks around global geopolitics, with elections seeing a swing to the right, fiscal deficits, and whether inflation data continues to soften. China remains a concern for all investors. Although he recommends South African investors maintain a reasonable level of offshore exposure, at about 35-40% of a total portfolio, he says SA is beginning to attract more investor interest.
25 Jul English South Africa Investing · Business News

Other recent episodes

US labour market strength surprises; SA collects more revenue than expected

Several US labour market reports released last week were surprisingly strong. The US created 254 000 jobs in September, well above expectations for 150 000 jobs, while unemployment fell to 4.1% from 4.2%. This encouraged the equity market, as it suggested the US is not about to move into recession,…
7 Oct 7 min

China takes steps to stimulate the economy; SA’s economic data remains weak

China’s authorities last week unveiled a series of measures designed to stabilize the property sector and stimulate consumer spending. These measures included a cut in banks’ reserve requirements and in interest rates. Financial markets were encouraged, having expected any policy stimulus would only follow the US presidential election. Sentiment in…
30 Sep 14 min

US Fed and SARB interest decisions loom in the next few days

The US Federal Reserve will meet on Wednesday this week to discuss interest rates and the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will meet on Thursday. Both central banks are expected to cut rates by 25 bps and signal further cuts in the rest of this year and 2025. The SARB…
16 Sep 5 min

US labour market trends weaken, SA’s GDP picks up marginally

The US August labour market report was mixed. It showed an improvement in the unemployment rate to 4.2% from 4.3% in July, but the number of jobs created was below the monthly average. Whether the US Fed will cut interest rates by 25 bps or 50 bps later this month…
9 Sep 8 min

Encouraging trends are evident in latest US, European inflation data

US core PCE inflation for July, at 2.6% y/y, was welcomed because it shows inflation is under control, although it still above the US Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. In Europe, consumer inflation has moderated to 2.2% y/y, close to the European Central Bank’s target of 2%, which may prompt…
2 Sep 9 min