Encouraging trends are evident in latest US, European inflation data

--:--

US core PCE inflation for July, at 2.6% y/y, was welcomed because it shows inflation is under control, although it still above the US Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. In Europe, consumer inflation has moderated to 2.2% y/y, close to the European Central Bank’s target of 2%, which may prompt the bank to cut rates again before the end of the year.
SA’s producer inflation rate of 4.2% y/y for July reflected the second consecutive month-on-month decline. However, it suggests a lacklustre manufacturing sector, with no pricing power. South African government revenue for July has printed slightly behind budget, while expenditure is slightly ahead of budget. This is not a risk yet but, if the economy fails to gain momentum, there is a risk of a revenue shortfall in the February 2025 Budget.
Click here to listen to the podcast

2 Sep English South Africa Investing · Business News

Other recent episodes

US labour market strength surprises; SA collects more revenue than expected

Several US labour market reports released last week were surprisingly strong. The US created 254 000 jobs in September, well above expectations for 150 000 jobs, while unemployment fell to 4.1% from 4.2%. This encouraged the equity market, as it suggested the US is not about to move into recession,…

7 Oct 7 min

China takes steps to stimulate the economy; SA’s economic data remains weak

China’s authorities last week unveiled a series of measures designed to stabilize the property sector and stimulate consumer spending. These measures included a cut in banks’ reserve requirements and in interest rates. Financial markets were encouraged, having expected any policy stimulus would only follow the US presidential election. Sentiment in…

30 Sep 14 min

US Fed and SARB interest decisions loom in the next few days

The US Federal Reserve will meet on Wednesday this week to discuss interest rates and the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) will meet on Thursday. Both central banks are expected to cut rates by 25 bps and signal further cuts in the rest of this year and 2025. The SARB…

16 Sep 5 min

US labour market trends weaken, SA’s GDP picks up marginally

The US August labour market report was mixed. It showed an improvement in the unemployment rate to 4.2% from 4.3% in July, but the number of jobs created was below the monthly average. Whether the US Fed will cut interest rates by 25 bps or 50 bps later this month…

9 Sep 8 min

SA’s inflation slows more than expected while US Fed flags looming rate cuts

SA’s headline Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) rate for July was surprisingly subdued, slowing to 4.6% from 5.1% in June. This reflects a slightly lower than expected electricity tariff hike and a slowdown in food price increases, as well as fuel price cuts. The slowing inflation trend makes it more likely…

26 Aug 8 min

All episodes