NOW Ep84: Mini-budget preview - Improved outlook for state finances?

Loading player...
A rerating of SA sovereign bond yields, a stronger ZAR, and sidestepping a fiscal slippage, have sparked optimism for a healthier national balance sheet. But structural challenges persist, impeding the potential for growth. In the latest episode of the No Ordinary Wednesday podcast, Investec Chief Economist Annabel Bishop and Treasury Economist Tertia Jacobs discuss the Finance Minister's priorities ahead of the mini budget on 30 October.

Podcast key moments:

00:00 – Introduction
01:24 - Under what macroeconomic conditions will the minister deliver the midterm budget speech?
02:44 - Is South Africa in a much better macroeconomic position going into Q4?
03:22 – Is the budget deficit narrowing?
04:09 – Is South Africa managing debt better?
05:26 – What are the risks to consider?
07:21 – What does fiscal consolidation look like for the country?
09:12 – Any tax announcements expected?
10:49 – What do you expect on inflation targeting?
13:07 - What are some of the key developments that have transpired between February 2024 the upcoming October MTBPS?
14:08 - What are the implications of the rerating of the country risk premium and appreciation of the rand on the balance sheet?
15:15 - Following the review of the public-private partnerships, what are you expecting from the minister on October 30?
17:20 - Some conditional debt relief for municipalities was announced by the minister in February, do you think there will be more relief?
19:36 - Is the minister reining in the spending?
21:14 – Revenue forecast

Read more on www.investec.com/now

Hosted by seasoned broadcaster, Jeremy Maggs, the No Ordinary Wednesday podcast unpacks the latest economic, business and political news in South Africa, with an all-star cast of investment and wealth managers, economists and financial planners from Investec. Listen in every second Wednesday for an in-depth look at what's moving markets, shaping the economy, and changing the game for your wallet and your business.
Chapters
  • 00:00 Introduction
  • 01:24 Under what macroeconomic conditions will the minister deliver the midterm budget speech?
  • 02:44 Is South Africa in a much better macroeconomic position going into Q4?
  • 03:22 Is the budget deficit narrowing?
  • 04:09 Is South Africa managing debt better?
  • 05:26 What are the risks to consider?
  • 07:21 What does fiscal consolidation look like for the country?
  • 09:12 Any tax announcements expected?
  • 13:07 What are some of the key developments that have transpired between February 2024 budget and the upcoming October MTBPS?
  • 14:08 What are the implications of the rerating of the country risk premium and appreciation of the rand on the balance sheet?
  • 15:15 Following the review of the public-private partnerships, what are you expecting from the minister on October 30?
  • 17:20 Some conditional debt relief for municipalities was announced by the minister in February, do you think there will be more relief?
  • 19:36 Is the minister reining in the spending?
  • 21:14 Revenue forecast
15 Oct 2024 English South Africa Business · Investing

Other recent episodes

Macro Monday Ep124: AI capex and competition concerns weigh on stock markets

Increased competition among LLMs and uncertainty about the return on investment on AI capex are all weighing on the market performance on momentum stocks, such as semiconductor firms. Chris Holdsworth, Global Chief Investment Officer, Investec Investment Management, looks at some of the dynamics in global stock markets.
20 Jul 8 min

NOW Ep 131: South Africa’s consumer crunch

Are South African consumers past the worst of the fuel shock? Household budgets have been hit by higher fuel prices, rising inflation and pressure on real wages. But fuel prices are starting to fall. The risk is timing. Will relief arrive before households are forced to cut back further? Host…
14 Jul 24 min

Everything Counts | Episode 51: Managing global travel disruption

In this episode of Everything Counts, we unpack the real-world impact of geopolitical tension on global travel, from grounded flights and closed airspace to the human stories behind stranded passengers. What happens behind the scenes when airlines, advisors, and entire systems are forced to respond in real time? Host Motheo…
14 Jul 29 min

Macro Monday Ep123: Headwinds and tailwinds for global growth

Global GDP growth looks set to be around 3% this year, as the global economy deals with headwinds from a supply shock because of the war with Iran and tailwinds from artificial intelligence spending, says Chris Holdsworth, Chief Investment Strategist, at Investec Wealth & Investment International. While US and Chinese…
13 Jul 9 min

Macro Monday Ep122: Markets have a good first half of the year

Despite the war in the Gulf, the last six months have been good for global equities. While the US market’s performance has been in line with the overall global performance, the standout has been South Korea, which, says Chris Holdsworth, Chief Investment Strategist, at Investec Wealth & Investment International, has…
6 Jul 9 min