Allan Gray The Allan Gray Podcast

38. Beyond the hit rate: Making the best investment ideas count

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Successful investing is often associated with making perfect decisions, yet even the most accomplished investors can be wrong from time to time. Long-term investment outcomes are driven less by perfection and more by ensuring that the best ideas are backed with conviction and time to influence long-term returns.

In the latest episode of The Allan Gray Podcast, Mica Townsend, an investment specialist in our ManCo Distribution team, is joined by Allan Gray portfolio manager Tim Acker to discuss how position sizing shapes investment outcomes. Drawing on reflections across a range of our portfolio holdings, from AB InBev and Investec to Naspers and Prosus, they explore why managing downside risk, allocating capital to the most promising ideas and disciplined decision-making may matter more than achieving a perfect hit rate.
Chapters
  • 03:00 Why investment impact matters more that hit rate
  • 07:15 Creating asymmetric outcomes by limiting downside risk
  • 09:37 How do you tell if your are wrong or just early on an investment thesis
  • 13:27 Why it is important to judge the process more than the result
  • 17:33 Deciding when to sell, hold, or increase our position
  • 27:20 How to become comfortable being wrong
  • 32:09 Paying attention to position size and not just the names in the fund
18 Aug English South Africa Business · Investing

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