No Ordinary Wednesday | The signals from oil, bonds and inflation
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Oil, bond yields and inflation are sending a more cautious signal on the global outlook.
Growth has held up better than expected. But energy markets remain tight, long-term borrowing costs are rising, and central banks are weighing the risk of another inflation shock.
In the latest No Ordinary Wednesday, Ellie Henderson and Callum Macpherson of Investec UK discuss what the oil market, sovereign bonds and economic data are telling us now.
They also explore what this means for interest rates, corporate investment and the risks facing South Africa.
Growth has held up better than expected. But energy markets remain tight, long-term borrowing costs are rising, and central banks are weighing the risk of another inflation shock.
In the latest No Ordinary Wednesday, Ellie Henderson and Callum Macpherson of Investec UK discuss what the oil market, sovereign bonds and economic data are telling us now.
They also explore what this means for interest rates, corporate investment and the risks facing South Africa.
Chapters
- 00:00 Introduction
- 01:06 What’s keeping the global economy resilient?
- 02:17 Oil prices point to disruption into 2027
- 03:29 When does an energy shock become an inflation problem?
- 05:02 Wages and core inflation are the key warning signs
- 06:08 Oil prices balance supply loss and shrinking inventories
- 07:01 Refined fuels reveal the real energy squeeze
- 08:32 Why global bond yields are rising
- 10:29 The Fed faces the toughest policy call
- 11:44 Managing commodity risk when prices could move sharply
- 13:08 Higher yields make corporate investment harder
- 14:15 Middle East conflict remains the biggest risk to the outlook
- 15:06 Diesel spreads signal when energy markets are normalising
- 15:53 Physical energy flows will tell the real story
