Polling data shows ANC a sniff above 50% with 56% voter turnout - Dr Frans Cronje explains

Independent analyst Dr Frans Cronje's think tank, the Social Research Foundation (SRF) has issued a report showing the ANC would likely win an absolute maximum of 52% of the vote in an election modelled on voter turnout of 56%. The SRF report has garnered significant attention primarily because polling company Ipsos puts the ANC at only 42%, according to its latest polling data. The big difference between these two is the SRF report dealt only with registered voters while Ipsos didn't. South Africa's voter turnout is historically poor. In the 2019 national election, about 66% of the electorate turned out, dropping from 73.4% in 2014. For the 2021 local government elections that figure is even bleaker, at 46% down from 57% in 2014. Among registered voters, Cronje says they're polling the ANC at 46.9%, "and then when we start creating election scenarios, factoring in voter turnout levels, the highest we can get the ANC to is 52%." He says the data regarding the slumping fortunes of the ANC is unambiguous. The SRF report highlights that if only urban South Africans voted, the ANC would muster only 33%. Conversely, if only rural SA headed to the polls, the ANC would win a two-thirds majority. ANC voters are ageing and rural in an urbanising economy. Cronje is adamant that the future survival of the ANC come 2024 is less dependent on anything it does or says, but "is a question of whether the people who wish to beat it are able to pull together sufficiently to shore up confidence in coalition options". If the ANC manages to scrape by in two years’ time, it will be a reflection of a disjointed and ineffective opposition in South Africa which simply couldn't get their act together. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices