Impact of tariffs on SA citrus exporters will hinge on health of US consumer – Absa AgriBusiness report
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GUEST – Dr Marlene Louw, senior economist at Absa AgriBusiness.
South African citrus producers and other participants in the citrus export value chain may need to absorb a portion of the 30% reciprocal tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump if American consumers cannot stomach hefty price increases in the coming months.
South Africa is a counter seasonal citrus supplier to the US – the primary exporting months to the US run from July to October, with oranges and mandarins being the main citrus products destined for export. “With other notable Southern Hemisphere exporters like Chile already sending the bulk of their orange exports (75% or more) to the US during this period, there is limited capacity from other Southern Hemisphere producers to substitute South African volumes, which become uncompetitive based on the imposed 30% import levy,” says Dr Marlene Louw, senior economist at Absa AgriBusiness.
South African citrus producers and other participants in the citrus export value chain may need to absorb a portion of the 30% reciprocal tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump if American consumers cannot stomach hefty price increases in the coming months.
South Africa is a counter seasonal citrus supplier to the US – the primary exporting months to the US run from July to October, with oranges and mandarins being the main citrus products destined for export. “With other notable Southern Hemisphere exporters like Chile already sending the bulk of their orange exports (75% or more) to the US during this period, there is limited capacity from other Southern Hemisphere producers to substitute South African volumes, which become uncompetitive based on the imposed 30% import levy,” says Dr Marlene Louw, senior economist at Absa AgriBusiness.
